The head of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, responded to the doubts of many parties regarding Indonesia's economic growth figures in the second quarter of 2025. According to BPS records, the national economy grew by 5.2% annually or year on year (yoy), far above the predictions of a number of economists.
Although widely doubted, Amalia stated that the BPS calculation meets international standards. "There are international standards," said Amalia at the State Palace, Jakarta, on Wednesday (8/6).
Although many economists projected that the economy would slow down during that period compared to the previous year. Even the economic growth rate in the second quarter of 2025 will not exceed 5% because there are no driving factors like in the first quarter when there was the Ramadan moment.
Amalia said that the economic growth already has valid data. "The supporting data is already okay. Everything is ready. The supporting data is solid," said Amalia.
4 Anomalies in the Celios Version
Ekonom Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Nailul Huda openly expressed criticism towards BPS data. He believes the high growth figures do not reflect the actual economic condition.
"Saya tidak percaya dengan data yang disampaikan mewakili kondisi ekonomi yang sebenarnya," kata Huda, Selasa (5/8).
Here are four anomalies highlighted by Celios:
1. Economic Surge Without the Momentum of Ramadan-Idul Fitri
Huda finds it strange that the economic growth in the second quarter is higher than in the first quarter. After all, the first quarter includes the Ramadan and Eid moments, which are usually the main drivers of consumer spending.
"In the first quarter there was Ramadan, and growth was only 4.87%. But in the second quarter, it surged without any major event," said Huda.
2. Industrial Growth is Disproportionate with PMI Data
The processing industry grew by 5.68%, but Huda highlighted the discrepancy with the Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which actually contracted below 50 points during April-June 2025.
"Meaning the company did not significantly expand (additional production)," said Huda. He also noted that the number of layoffs increased by 32% throughout the first semester, indicating deteriorating manufacturing conditions.
3. Household Consumption Is Not in Line with PDB Contribution
Household consumption grew by 4.97% and contributed more than 54% to GDP. But this is only a slight increase from the previous quarter, which was 4.95%, although economic growth increased significantly.
Huda also mentioned that the consumer confidence index weakened from 121.1 in March 2025 to 117.8 in June 2025, indicating a decline in public purchasing power.
4. Economic Data Not in Sync with Other Indicators
According to Huda, many leading indicators do not support the BPS's claim of high growth. He requested the BPS to explain in detail the methodology and indicators used.
"BPS must explain in detail the methodology used, including the indexes to draw the gross value added sectoral figures and also expenditure," said Huda.
CORE Indonesia Highlights Surge in Investments
Executive Director of the Center for Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, Mohammad Faisal, also highlighted the unusual growth in investment. BPS recorded gross fixed capital formation (PMTB) growing by 6.99% in the second quarter of 2025, a sharp jump from the previous quarter which was only 2.12%.
"Very far compared to the first quarter of 2025, which was not even 3%. Initially, we expected the second quarter to be just slightly above 3%, but reaching 7% is indeed very high," said Faisal.
According to Faisal, the investment value is equivalent to the pre-pandemic Covid-19 conditions, so he considers the BPS record to be unexpected.
"Because at the same time, several indicators related to investment have emerged, there are many doubts from investors regarding the policies and effectiveness rather than the government's policies," said Faisal.
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