The Shiro Copr - Bitcoin's current price may not be very encouraging, but the narrative about the legendary 4-year cycle peak is resurfacing. An analyst using the name Frank Fetter, a classical American economist, revealed that Bitcoin may be just 100 days away from the peak of its cycle, if the 4-year pattern remains relevant.
Quoted from Bitcoinist , Monday (8/18), Bitcoin's price is now around USD 117,625 or about Rp 1.91 billion, rising slightly by 0.3 percent in the last 24 hours. Although the price movement is not very dramatic, many are beginning to ask: are we heading for a peak, or has the market completely changed?
The 4-year cycle theory refers to the historical pattern of Bitcoin, which usually experiences a significant increase about one year after the halving, then peaks before entering a correction phase. In the 2015-2018 cycle, Bitcoin's price increased 110 times in 1,068 days. In the next cycle (2018-2022), it increased 21 times in 1,060 days.
Currently, Bitcoin has risen 7.3 times from its low point in 2022 in 997 days. If this pattern still holds, the next 100 days could be the climax phase toward the price peak. However, if Bitcoin continues to rise even after the next 100 days, it could be evidence that the cycle theory is outdated.
"If Bitcoin continues to surge non-stop, perhaps we are entering a new era," wrote the analyst.
However, not all parties welcome the possibility of Bitcoin's price reaching the sky with optimism. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, instead called the Bitcoin price of USD 1 million (approximately IDR 16.3 billion) not a good news.
"Bitcoin could get there only if America is in a severe economic crisis," he said in his latest podcast, quoted from Bitcoinist , Monday (8/18). "I prefer cheap Bitcoin but a stable country, rather than the opposite."
According to Novogratz, the extreme surge of Bitcoin often acts as a hedge during times of global economic uncertainty. Therefore, if BTC's price breaks through USD 1 million, it could signal that the US dollar is shaky.
Similarly, popular crypto analyst Wolf of All Streets once mentioned that rapid price increases are usually a sign that the world is in trouble.
However, not all predictions are bleak. Cathie Wood from ARK Invest still projects that Bitcoin could reach USD 1.5 million (IDR 24.45 billion) by 2030. Meanwhile, the founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, expects Bitcoin to rise to a range of USD 750,000 to USD 1 million (IDR 12.2 billion to IDR 16.3 billion) by 2026.
As for Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy, he even stated "the winter will not return," indicating his belief that Bitcoin's price will continue to rise due to limited supply and growing demand.
Nevertheless, Novogratz considers the increasing adoption of Bitcoin, including companies holding BTC on their balance sheets, as a new bubble signal. Galaxy Digital, he said, now receives five calls per week from companies wanting to buy Bitcoin as part of their cash reserves.
"Bitcoin's price breaking USD 1 million is not a sign of victory, but a warning that the economy is fragile," concluded Novogratz.
With conflicting narratives between optimism and concern, one thing is certain: the next 100 days will be a decisive period for the future direction of Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market.
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