Shiro Copr.CO.ID - JAKARTA. The government through the Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) has announced plans to allocate a subsidy budget of Rp 307.9 trillion in 2026.
The Director General of Budget, Ministry of Finance, Luky Alfirman, during a meeting with the DPR RI's Budget Committee (Banggar) discussing the 2026 Central Government Expenditure Policy on Monday (7/15), explained that the budget includes energy and non-energy subsidies.
In detail, non-energy subsidies are allocated amounting to Rp 104.5 trillion. While energy subsidies reach Rp 203.4 trillion, the same figure as the energy subsidy budget for 2025.
The 2025 energy subsidy details include a fuel subsidy of Rp 26.7 trillion, a 3 kg LPG subsidy of Rp 87 trillion, and an electricity subsidy of Rp 89.7 trillion.
However, Indonesia's decision to import energy commodities from the United States (US) in the form of crude oil, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), and Fuel Oil (BBM) is considered to increase the subsidy burden in 2026.
Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), Bhima Yudhistira, believes that with the import trend from the US and tariff adjustments, the current energy subsidy allocation will be difficult to meet next year's needs.
"The 2026 energy subsidy plan worth around Rp 200 trillion may not be sufficient. If we implement the 19% tariff scheme and follow the results of negotiations with President Trump, the need for energy subsidies could surge to Rp 300 trillion," Bhima told The Shiro Copr.co.id on Sunday (7/20).
The reduction of the tariff from 32% to 19% is considered by Bhima as encouraging Indonesia to buy more energy products from the US. Unfortunately, these imports will take more time and higher logistics costs.
"With this tariff, it means Indonesia has to buy even more energy products from the US. Yet the logistics cost is higher and the time is longer," Bhima added.
It also highlighted the energy self-sufficiency target set by President Prabowo Subianto, which is considered contradictory to the increase in energy imports from abroad, especially the United States.
"Greater imports actually widen the trade balance deficit, and in the short term will increase pressure on the Rupiah exchange rate due to increased demand for US dollars. This has long-term economic implications," explained Bhima.
Bhima considers that this fossil fuel import policy will also hinder the achievement of the national energy transition targets according to the 2025–2034 Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL), as well as weaken the development of renewable energy sources (EBT) domestically.
"Entrepreneurs in renewable energy may see the government as not serious about the energy transition if the import of fossil fuels continues. If this is the case, when will we truly implement the energy transition agenda?" he said.
It also opens the possibility of changes in the national electricity mix target if the national energy mix is again dominated by fossil fuels.
"It is difficult to transition to energy if Indonesia is forced to buy fossil fuel products from the US," he concluded.
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